This isn't video games: NFL Week 3 picks
There's a lot of bad happening in the world, but making NFL picks is, by nature, a weekly process. So here's my 100% ironclad guaranteed picks for Week 3.
Absolute carnage.
It’s not hyperbole to say that Week 2 in the NFL was positively brutal. It shouldn’t be surprising that I say that as a 49ers fan, but it would be a lie to suggest the 49ers were the only team absolutely devastated by injuries over the slate of games. They were the hardest hit overall, though.
San Francisco’s misfortune started with a real-ass fender bender for the PLANE that was going to take them to New York — and ended when the MRI truck literally broke down on its way to the team hotel, where multiple 49ers players were waiting after sustaining injuries in a dominant win against the Jets.
None of George Kittle, Richard Sherman, or Deebo Samuel even played on Sunday due to other injuries, while all of Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Bosa, Raheem Mostert, Solomon Thomas, Tevin Coleman, Dee Ford and a few others sustained minor to severe injuries on the artificial turf of MetLife Stadium.
So … you know: just the 49ers missing their best offensive and defensive players for an indeterminate amount of time and a season-ending ACL tear for the consensus-predicted 2021 sack leader.
Nothing too important.
Other teams were hit with some huge blows, too. The Giants lost Saquon Barkley for the season — and they have to play the 49ers on that same turf in Week 3. Injuries suck for reasons fans like us will never be able to fathom, but dang … it really sucks we don’t get to see Bosa vs. Barkley, that was going to be a highlight of the season for me personally.
Other than those marquee names, all of Davante Adams, Parris Campbell, Drew Lock, Anthony Barr and Tyrod Taylor are dealing with minor-to-severe injuries. All of those guys are hugely important to their respective teams, so there’s plenty of misery to go around.
I gotta say, I feel for Tyrod more than anyone else … I can’t believe the Chargers screwed things up the way they did, it’s honestly baffling.
What the hell are they doing in Los Angeles?
Where I’m at with my picks after Week 2
I went 13-3 in Week 1, and I’m pretty disappointed in myself for sticking with the Vikings in Week 2. My gut told me they were going to lose, but I picked them anyway because there’s so much talent on that roster. But I’m back to believing they simply can’t put it all together and I’m not going to trust them unless they have a truly easy game ahead of them.
What’s ahead of them isn’t an easy game. They have the Titans, who Minnesota is capable of beating, but I’m done with “capable” when it comes to the Vikings, too. My other loss in Week 2 was picking the Saints, who I called “out for blood” in my Week 2 picks. Instead, it was the Raiders who were out for blood, and they handled their business to make it to 2-0 on the season.
Ultimately, I went 14-2 in Week 2, bringing me to 27-5 on the season.
Let’s get down to picksness
Injuries have dramatically changed the entire NFL landscape, so I’m even less confident in my picks this week but of course, I still give you a 100% guarantee* they will be 100% accurate in Week 3. I will go 16-0.
Here are my Week 3 picks, which I made on Tallysight, a pretty slick tool for making picks. I also dabbled in picking the spread and over/under totals this week, something I usually do privately but not publicly. Well that’s changing, too!
So about the above picks …
Some of those games are really tough. Los Angeles at Buffalo is a big one. The Bills are more than capable of destroying the Rams, but I expect the Los Angeles defense to really buckle down.
Cincinnati at Philadelphia is tough, too. My gut told me to pick the Eagles, but my other gut (I have two) told me to go with the Bengals, so I did that.
Then there’s the Falcons.
Ugh, the Falcons.
I’ve had more confidence in them than some of the passionate Falcons fans I know over the past five or six years. I picked them to win the Super Bowl a couple times in recent years, even. And I’m disgusted with myself that I’m picking them again here when all they know how to do is let their fans (and me, expert picker) down.
Still … I believe Atlanta’s bad luck has to end sometime, and they should be able to beat the Bears.
Part of me wants to pick Las Vegas over the Patriots in Week 3, but Bill Belichick knows how to frustrate Derek Carr. With how Cam Newton looks right now, there’s no chance I can pick the Raiders in Week 3, but maybe they’ll burn me again.
My gut is telling me that I’m going to get like half of my picks wrong this week with how crazy the NFL has been through two weeks.
For 49ers Fans
Should Garoppolo, Mostert, or Kittle play? - Shanahan insists there’s a chance some or all of those guys could play, at least at the time of writing this … but the answer is no. The 49ers should have the depth to beat the Giants with Mullens, McKinnon, and a combination of other healthy blockers and receivers. If they can’t, well … DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!
How do you feel about Ziggy Ansah? - It’s a match made in heaven, but it doesn’t come close to making up for the loss of Bosa — or the probable long-term loss of Dee Ford (not to mention Solomon Thomas, who is done for the year as well). Ansah will fit right in and contribute immediately, but Robert Saleh is such a believer in his front seven — even the backups — I wouldn’t be surprised if he has limited snaps against the Giants. Then again, Ansah doesn’t need much coaching right now, Saleh can just tell him “run at the quarterback and smash him” and that might be sufficient.
If Devonta Freeman is healthy enough to play, there’s cause for concern. - The last thing the 49ers need right now, potentially feeling anxiety about the turf at MetLife Stadium, is to deal with a fresh, shifty running threat in Freeman. The veteran running back isn’t as powerful as Barkley, but he’s elusive, fast, and will leave weary linemen and linebackers in the dust. I don’t know if he’ll sign with the Giants at the time of writing this, but Freeman sure as heck intimidates me. He’s not at 100% health, but even a hobbled Freeman can do some damage to the ailing 49ers.
And that wraps it up for my Week 3 picks.
Stay tuned and stay safe, friends. <3
*=still not a guarantee